Behind the (most recent) Iran crisis
Tensions appear to be mounting over the issue of Iran's nuclear enrichment, as a reasonably decent analysis piece in today's New York Times illustrates.
But what underlies it? Who are the US's rivals to the East? Who really threatens American global dominance? Iran and the possibility of it producing nuclear power, or of funding the second intifada (which in fact can and does operate independently of any government's support)? Does it really ring true? Or is something else at work. Are Russia and Western Europe where the real danger lies? An article in yesterday's FT seems to give a good hint at why Iran is considered more of a threat to US dominance than a country which actually has nuclear weapons like North Korea:
'US seeks to limit Gazprom hold on Europe'
>By Guy Dinmore in Washington
>Published: April 28 2006 22:00; print issue of April 29 2006.
The Bush administration is seeking to curb Moscow’s influence in the Caucasus and central Asia and weaken Gazprom’s growing hold over gas supplies to Europe with an effort to promote new oil and gas corridors that would bypass Russia and exclude Iran.
US intentions were highlighted on Friday when President George W. Bush welcomed President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan to the White House, stressing the importance of their security and energy relationship.
Next week’s visit to Kazakhstan by Dick Cheney, the vice president, is further evidence that the US wants to shore up ties with key partners in central Asia, having lost access to a major military base in Uzbekistan last year. The vice president will use the visit to press for closer energy ties between Kazakhstan and Europe.
But analysts are concerned that an overall hardening of US policy towards Moscow could drive Russia and Iran, which together hold nearly half the world’s gas reserves, into an energy-based alliance.
A senior financier told the Financial Times that Iran, which is competing with Gazprom to provide gas to the Caucasus, was considering a switch in policy by selling its gas to Russia through central Asia because the US was blocking its access to Europe and India.
Lack of investment by Gazprom, which supplies Europe with about a quarter of its gas, means that Russia will be increasingly reliant on buying gas from central Asia or Iran to help meet its subsidised domestic needs and export commitments. Cliff Kupchan, analyst with the Eurasia Group consultancy, said he had a different understanding: that Russia and Iran would co-ordinate their gas export policies, with Moscow selling to the west and Iran to the east.
The stage is set for a bidding war between Russia, China and western energy companies over central Asian oil and gas.
Deals are proceeding at a bewildering speed. Turkmenistan signed a framework deal in Beijing this month to sell gas to China, while Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan president, visited Moscow for an agreement to double the capacity of a major oil pipeline for exports to Russia.
But the US wants Kazakhstan to look in a different direction, with officials outlining their desire to see a gas pipeline from Kazakhstan’s Kashagan field across the Caspian, linking with Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field and then heading west to Europe via Georgia rather than north through Russia.
“The market is not working,” said Matt Bryza, US deputy assistant secretary of state, noting that Gazprom buys central Asia gas for $55 per thousand cu m then sells it for double that in the Caucasus and for $265 to Turkey.
However, US officials dismissed suggestions that they were trying to “clip the wings” of Gazprom.
The US has to tread carefully as its oil majors are competing for participation in Gazprom’s Shtokman project under the Barents sea. The US has already started buying LNG provided by Gazprom.
But what underlies it? Who are the US's rivals to the East? Who really threatens American global dominance? Iran and the possibility of it producing nuclear power, or of funding the second intifada (which in fact can and does operate independently of any government's support)? Does it really ring true? Or is something else at work. Are Russia and Western Europe where the real danger lies? An article in yesterday's FT seems to give a good hint at why Iran is considered more of a threat to US dominance than a country which actually has nuclear weapons like North Korea:
'US seeks to limit Gazprom hold on Europe'
>By Guy Dinmore in Washington
>Published: April 28 2006 22:00; print issue of April 29 2006.
The Bush administration is seeking to curb Moscow’s influence in the Caucasus and central Asia and weaken Gazprom’s growing hold over gas supplies to Europe with an effort to promote new oil and gas corridors that would bypass Russia and exclude Iran.
US intentions were highlighted on Friday when President George W. Bush welcomed President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan to the White House, stressing the importance of their security and energy relationship.
Next week’s visit to Kazakhstan by Dick Cheney, the vice president, is further evidence that the US wants to shore up ties with key partners in central Asia, having lost access to a major military base in Uzbekistan last year. The vice president will use the visit to press for closer energy ties between Kazakhstan and Europe.
But analysts are concerned that an overall hardening of US policy towards Moscow could drive Russia and Iran, which together hold nearly half the world’s gas reserves, into an energy-based alliance.
A senior financier told the Financial Times that Iran, which is competing with Gazprom to provide gas to the Caucasus, was considering a switch in policy by selling its gas to Russia through central Asia because the US was blocking its access to Europe and India.
Lack of investment by Gazprom, which supplies Europe with about a quarter of its gas, means that Russia will be increasingly reliant on buying gas from central Asia or Iran to help meet its subsidised domestic needs and export commitments. Cliff Kupchan, analyst with the Eurasia Group consultancy, said he had a different understanding: that Russia and Iran would co-ordinate their gas export policies, with Moscow selling to the west and Iran to the east.
The stage is set for a bidding war between Russia, China and western energy companies over central Asian oil and gas.
Deals are proceeding at a bewildering speed. Turkmenistan signed a framework deal in Beijing this month to sell gas to China, while Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan president, visited Moscow for an agreement to double the capacity of a major oil pipeline for exports to Russia.
But the US wants Kazakhstan to look in a different direction, with officials outlining their desire to see a gas pipeline from Kazakhstan’s Kashagan field across the Caspian, linking with Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field and then heading west to Europe via Georgia rather than north through Russia.
“The market is not working,” said Matt Bryza, US deputy assistant secretary of state, noting that Gazprom buys central Asia gas for $55 per thousand cu m then sells it for double that in the Caucasus and for $265 to Turkey.
However, US officials dismissed suggestions that they were trying to “clip the wings” of Gazprom.
The US has to tread carefully as its oil majors are competing for participation in Gazprom’s Shtokman project under the Barents sea. The US has already started buying LNG provided by Gazprom.
posted by UK plc at 3:10 PM
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